An Unsupervised Deep Learning Approach for Scenario Forecasts

In this paper, we propose a novel scenario forecasts approach which can be applied to a broad range of power system operations (e.g., wind, solar, load) over various forecasts horizons and prediction intervals. This approach is model-free and data-driven, producing a set of scenarios that represent possible future behaviors based only on historical observations and point forecasts. It first applies a newly-developed unsupervised deep learning framework, the generative adversarial networks, to learn the intrinsic patterns in historical renewable generation data. Then by solving an optimization problem, we are able to quickly generate large number of realistic future scenarios. The proposed method has been applied to a wind power generation and forecasting dataset from national renewable energy laboratory. Simulation results indicate our method is able to generate scenarios that capture spatial and temporal correlations. Our code and simulation datasets are freely available online.Comment: Accepted to Power Systems Computation Conference 2018 Code available at https://github.com/chennnnnyize/Scenario-Forecasts-GA

Online Active Linear Regression via Thresholding

We consider the problem of online active learning to collect data for regression modeling. Specifically, we consider a decision maker with a limited experimentation budget who must efficiently learn an underlying linear population model. Our main contribution is a novel threshold-based algorithm for selection of most informative observations; we characterize its performance and fundamental lower bounds. We extend the algorithm and its guarantees to sparse linear regression in high-dimensional settings. Simulations suggest the algorithm is remarkably robust: it provides significant benefits over passive random sampling in real-world datasets that exhibit high nonlinearity and high dimensionality --- significantly reducing both the mean and variance of the squared error.Comment: Published in AAAI 201

Geometry of Power Flows and Optimization in Distribution Networks

We investigate the geometry of injection regions and its relationship to optimization of power flows in tree networks. The injection region is the set of all vectors of bus power injections that satisfy the network and operation constraints. The geometrical object of interest is the set of Pareto-optimal points of the injection region. If the voltage magnitudes are fixed, the injection region of a tree network can be written as a linear transformation of the product of two-bus injection regions, one for each line in the network. Using this decomposition, we show that under the practical condition that the angle difference across each line is not too large, the set of Pareto-optimal points of the injection region remains unchanged by taking the convex hull. Moreover, the resulting convexified optimal power flow problem can be efficiently solved via }{ semi-definite programming or second order cone relaxations. These results improve upon earlier works by removing the assumptions on active power lower bounds. It is also shown that our practical angle assumption guarantees two other properties: (i) the uniqueness of the solution of the power flow problem, and (ii) the non-negativity of the locational marginal prices. Partial results are presented for the case when the voltage magnitudes are not fixed but can lie within certain bounds.Comment: To Appear in IEEE Transaction on Power System